CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-04-11T06:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-11T06:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19735/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is a C1.6 flare and eruption from an unnumbered region around S15E05. The eruption starts around 2022-04-11T05:00Z and is characterized by an EUV wave and dimming that is best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption can also be seen in SDO AIA 304. The eruption is visible in the SW quadrant of STEREO A EUVI imagery. As for the arrival, solar wind speed increased from ~400 km/s at 2022-04-14T03:00Z to 480 km/s at 09:20Z. Magnetic field components increase around 03:30Z with Btotal exceeding 10nT at 08:43Z, likely from the flux rope arrival. Density shows a gradual increase beginning at 03:30Z as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-14T03:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-14T04:31Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-04-11 11:45
 - Time at C2: 2022-04-11 06:00
 - Radial speed: 553.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 46 deg
 - Eruption location: S06W02
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C1.6 (S18E11). Peak at 2022-04-11 04:59
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 560.88 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-04-14 04:31 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.53 hours)

Lead Time: 61.12 hour(s)
Difference: -0.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-04-11T14:30Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement